At least the antibiotic-resistant microbiota will be thriving, right??
In good news for the evil microbe community, the next few years – should humankind continue in its failure to slow climate change and meet sustainable development goals – are looking fruitful.
New research published in Nature Medicine looked at 4500 antimicrobial resistance surveillance records collected from 101 countries between 1999 and 2022, and projected a 2.4% increase in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) globally come 2050.
The effect would be felt harder in lower-middle-income and lower-income countries, increasing by up to 4.1% and 3.3% respectively.
The predictions were based on a worst-case scenario modelling an average temperature increase of up to 5C by 2100.
While much of the effort to combat AMR thus far has focused on reducing antibiotic use, the Sun Yat-sen University research team modelling found that the potential benefits of meeting sustainable development objectives would result in a greater net decrease in resistance.
“Climate change can exacerbate AMR through several pathways,” the authors wrote.
“Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and floods, critically challenge AMR prevention efforts in [lower-middle-income countries].
“These events not only increase the risk of AMR spread but also threaten to destabilise already vulnerable health infrastructure, complicating antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention efforts.”
Then there’s the effects of climate change bringing humans into closer contact with wild animals, increasing the likelihood of zoonotic diseases, and the fact that air pollution and surface runoff facilitates the wider spread of resistance.
The great news does not stop there.
“Of particular concern is the potential for sustained warming to reduce the fitness cost associated with resistance mutations, thereby enabling resistant bacterial populations to persist without evolutionary trade-offs,” they wrote.
“This phenomenon could lead to the establishment of persistent AMR reservoirs in the context of ongoing climate change, emphasising the importance of identifying temperature-sensitive pathogens for the development of targeted mitigation strategies.”
According to the research, if climate change is going to make antimicrobial resistance worse – which appears quite likely – the best path forward isn’t just to cut down on antibiotic use, but to pursue sustainable development goals like increased health investment, reduced out-of-pocket expenses, access to safer water and hygiene services and full immunisation coverage.
“Higher out-of-pocket health costs and lower health expenditures were both associated with increased AMR,” the researchers wrote.
“High out-of-pocket expenses, in particular, reflect excessive prescriptions and reduced quality standards.”
At the end of the day, it’s the bugs’ world and we’re just living in it.
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